Vector Cuatro, experto en informes periciales para valoración de daños para procedimientos judiciales y arbitrajes de inversión en México
Son muchos los actores del sector renovable en México que recientemente han mostrado su preocupación después de que la Secretaría de Energía (SENER) diera a conocer las modificaciones a los lineamientos para el otorgamiento de los Certificados de Energía Limpia (CELs).
La Asociación Mexicana de Energía Eólica (AMDEE) y la Asociación Mexicana de Energía Solar (ASOLMEX) han defendido en un comunicado que las medidas recientemente aprobadas generan daño por partida triple: (i) violentan derechos ambientales, (ii) destruyen el valor de activos de proyectos de energías renovables ya en operación y (iii) sientan un precedente de modificaciones legales que disminuye la confianza de los inversionistas.
Las dos voces del sector renovable en México sostienen en su escrito que los CELs constituyen el principal mecanismo para el desarrollo de nuevas plantas de energía limpia y que los nuevos lineamientos suponen un riesgo para cumplir con las obligaciones de mitigación del cambio climático que México adquirió ante la comunidad internacional.
Además, ASOLMEX y AMDEE destacan que las modificaciones a los lineamientos privan a la Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) de una importante disminución de costos de generación de electricidad; mientras que el costo medio de generación ronda los 80 dólares/MWh, las subastas de largo plazo permitieron costos de generación de menos de 21 dólares/MWh, incluyendo el precio del CEL, lo que en definitiva supone un ahorro dramático.
Ante esta situación, y de cara a cualesquiera procedimientos judiciales o arbitrales respecto de las medidas recientemente aprobadas por la SENER, Vector Cuatro cuenta con la experiencia y el equipo necesario para realizar informes periciales para valoración de daños para procedimientos judiciales y arbitrajes de inversión en México.
Dada su experiencia y la amplitud de servicios que ofrece a nivel técnico, financiero y legal, Vector Cuatro ha participado en más de 20 procesos tanto en España como en México. Beatriz Llorente (Directora de M&A y Asesoramiento Financiero), actuando como perito independiente, y Rafael Echegoyen (Director del Departamento Jurídico) han trabajado conjuntamente en los últimos meses en diferentes procesos arbitrales y judiciales.
Desde Vector Cuatro queremos darles a conocer este servicio que cada día es más demandado por nuestros clientes y que estamos llevando a cabo con gran éxito, esperando poder colaborar con ustedes en el futuro.
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Investing in Mexico
Mexico is among the top 10 most attractive countries in the world with the highest investment in renewable energy.
Currently, Mexico is in a situation of uncertainty and risk because the new Government of López Obrador has positioned itself against renewable energy auctions. In turn, the president of CFE (Federal Commission of Electricity) has requested the three previous auctions project contracts to be renegotiated.
So far, in Mexico, three auctions have been carried out in the years 2015, 2016 and 2017, and a fourth was planned for 2018, however, last January, the last clean energy auction was cancelled.
Despite this, the situation also represents an opportunity to obtain high returns for those willing to assume this risk. The abundance of solar resources, the high prices of energy, the decrease in technology costs and the growing need for diversification of resources combine to place Mexico among the world leaders for photovoltaic development.
The Mexican economy is growing at a good pace. The Secretaría de Energía (SENER) expects energy demand to grow at 3% during the period 2018-2032, as well as retirement of nearly 12 GW of existing capacity in the same period.
SENER is implementing a Clean Energy Certificates market, based on the obligation of large consumers to have a minimum level of consumption from clean energy, from 5% in 2018 to 13.9% in 2022.
Also, price of electric power in Mexico is very high: in nominal terms, it is 73% higher than in the United States. Citizens do not realize this because 95% of households obtain an electric subsidy that covers up to 90% of their receipt. Even after the subsidy and adjusting for purchasing power, electric power in Mexico is still 25% more expensive than in the United States. Mexico spends 0.75% of its GDP subsidizing electricity tariffs.
Despite the negative impact of the cancellation of the 4th auction, the current uncertainty, and the multiple challenges that await it, solar energy in Mexico is still in very good shape. Bilateral PPAs viability is already a fact in Mexico and the expansion of this segment could lead to a more sustainable market. It is worth mentioning as recent success stories of long-term PPAs the one of the French Engie with the steel producer Gerdau Corsa for a photovoltaic installation of 130 MW and a Balam Fund’s 35 MW photovoltaic plant that supplies Farmacias del Ahorro.
According to a report published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, worldwide, the volume of energy consumed by companies that have decided to be supplied by clean energy and specifically through the bilateral market reached a record of 13.4 GW in 2018. Mexico is part of this global trend and between 2008 and 2017 PPAs were signed for a total of 3.4 GW, mostly from wind projects. Main sectors that have led this trend are: cement, malls, financial, mining, steel, consumer and automotive godos.
Vector Cuatro M&A and Financial Advisory business line provides its clients with tailor-made market reports covering, inter alia, country and sector analysis, development and connection process description, market price hedging (PPA and auction) description, tax memo, asset valuation analysis including expected returns and comparable transactions in the market, financing structures definition.
In addition, Vector Cuatro M&A and Financial Advisory business line is well experienced on the valuation of PV and wind projects through the preparation of financial models covering development, construction and operations.
Finally, Vector Cuatro provides potential investors with local investment opportunities according to the specific investor requirements and intermediates between large consumers and project owners in order to negotiate bilateral PPA agreements.
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Investing in Spain
Spanish Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) scheme was abolished for new renewable energy projects back in 2014 (retroactive effect from July 2013); whilst for existing installations FiT scheme was replaced with a retribution regime aimed at granting to all operating assets a Reasonable Return (“Rentabilidad Razonable”) through a double incentive: (i) Return on Investment (to recover the initial investment) and; (ii) Return on Operation (to cover operating expenses). However, Government is entitled to call for auctions that may result in the granting of specific subsidies under the same scheme of operating assets for new developments, as done in 2016 and 2017.
Spain intends to go beyond EU objectives, so that post-auction period will represent an important challenge for the sector. The main difference between nowadays and years ago is that grid parity has now been reached, which means that by selling energy at market prices it is possible to cover costs and achieve profitability.
From route-to-market standpoint, as a result of having reached grid parity, there are three types of renewables energies (RE) projects now being delivered into the market: (I) auction projects, (II) PPA projects and (III) full-merchant projects.
Onshore wind and Solar PV grid parity have taken renewable energy industry to new paradigm, where investment structures had become more complex, but investment opportunities have grown considerably. Additionally, Spain offers very good resource and low renewable energy penetration, compared to real deployment capabilities. All these combined makes Spain one of the most attractive OECD markets.
Spain is the second European country with the largest installed wind capacity and the fifth in the world, only behind China, the United States, Germany and India. The country is widely committed to comply with the 2020 target, for that purpose, a boost on the share of renewables is taking place and will continue increasing over the following years, since Spain will need to double its renewable capacity by 2030 to comply with European renewable energy targets.
Spanish Government, led by Teresa Ribera, Minister for Transición Ecológica proposed through “Anteproyecto de ley de cambio climático y transición energética” an increased target of 35% of Spanish energy consumption coming from renewable energy. To that end, the following roadmap is proposed:
-Period 2020 – 2030 auctions shall be carried out to develop a minimum of 3GW of annual capacity.
-Every 5 years, specific measures will be carried out to define the share amount needed to achieve the targets (the period may be modified to 2.5 years).
-A new legal framework for renewables simplifying administrative procedures and burdens will be stablished.
-Renewable energy generation plants shall be given priority to access distribution and transport network.
Key drivers and risks on an investment in a RE project in Spain:
–Connection points vs. Land: capacity of current substations has become a problem when entering the market. Bonds (40.000€/MW) to be granted without visibility of the available capacity and the risks of finding lands in the nearby considering the bubble in the market as a consequence of so many developers requesting capacity, have resulted on speculation and difficulties to have a project.
–PPA: Since Spanish renewable energy market was reactivated mainly driven by auctions launched in 2016-2017, PPA structures had become a reality when assessing renewable energy investments in Spain. Reasons why PPA are growing in popularity are simple: (i) limited subsidy-scheme projects; (ii) aversion to regulatory risk and; (iii) non-recourse financing requirements. Variety of PPA structures is wide: financial or physical contracts, fixed-price, floor, collar, upside sharing, market indexed, etc. PPA improves visibility on energy prices and therefore predictable cash flows which is instrumental to access non-recourse financing.
–Auctions: tight deadline to meet the deadlines of 31/12/2019 COD.
–Increasing prices: as a consequence of the lack of real opportunities and the liquidity of the market, which tend to reduce returns and therefore a misallocation with the assumed risks.
Vector Cuatro M&A and Financial Advisory business line provides its clients with tailor-made market reports covering, inter alia, country and sector analysis, development and connection process description, market price hedging (PPA and auction) description, tax memo, asset valuation analysis including expected returns and comparable transactions in the market, financing structures definition.
In addition, Vector Cuatro M&A and Financial Advisory business line is well experienced on the valuation of PV and wind projects through the preparation of financial models covering development, construction and operations.
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Vector Cuatro, asesor técnico de la planta solar Noboribetsu
La multinacional española ha actuado como asesor técnico en el proyecto fotovoltaico Noboribetsu, de 30 MW, desarrollado por Renewable Japan. Es la primera vez que se otorga una calificación verde a un bono para proyectos (project bond).
Vector Cuatro ha actuado como asesor técnico del proyecto Noboribetsu, un proyecto de 30 MW desarrollado por Renewable Japan quien, a su vez, posee uno de los 3 fondos solares que cotizan en bolsa en Japón. El proyecto ha recibido una calificación preliminar por parte de la agencia de calificación japonesa Rating and Investment Information (R&I), para su incorporación al fondo. R&I evaluó el proyecto y confirmó la emisión de bonos con nivel GA1 (preliminar).
Como asesor técnico, Vector Cuatro realizó el estudio de viabilidad y la Due Diligence técnica.
Vector Cuatro está presente en Asia desde el año 2012, cuando empezó a prestar servicios de consultoría técnica y soporte en transacciones para distintas plantas fotovoltaicas en Japón. Desde entonces, Vector Cuatro ha experimentado un rápido crecimiento en el país habiendo realizado hasta la fecha estudios de factibilidad, Due Diligence técnica y otros servicios de consultoría en más de 4 GW.
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